Taking a punt on the Federal election
It’s been said that Australian punters would bet on two flies crawling up a wall. But would they take a punt on politics?
Apparently so, according to Canberra bookmaker Portland Bet.
“Voters and punters often behave in a similar way, at least according to the cynics out there,” bookie Stephen Hobbs said.
“They are both guided by their hip pocket and when it comes to the crunch of marking the appropriate box or laying down a bet, their wallet will ultimately determine their actions.
“For the 2001 and 2004 elections, researchers Andrew Leigh from The Australian National University and Justin Wolfers from the University of Pennsylvania found that bookmakers and their prices provided a better guide to the outcome than the pollsters and their data.
“Money talks, and the market listens. The betting public is quick to tell us when the prices on offer are not an accurate indication of public sentiment. Election prices generally reflect what the market thinks”.
And the general public has been getting increasingly interested in election betting markets.
At the 2004 election, it was estimated as much as $4 million was bet on the election with bookmakers. There was also a significant increase in the popularity of individual seat betting.
On current prices, Portlandbet forecasts the Coalition to return to government with a reduced majority, winning 77 seats, to 71 for the Australia Labor Party. Independents should win two seats.
And locally? In Page, where sitting Member Ian Causley is retiring, the Coalition is favourite at $1.42, with the ALP $2.75. A win by any other candidate is much longer at $31.
It’s a different story in Richmond, with sitting ALP Member Justine Elliot favourite at $1.62, with the Coalition at $2.20. Any other candidate is at $31.
August 9th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
It’s great that Australians are getting interested in the issues that face us all as a nation. Everyone should take interest - any age - even if they’re not able to vote. It’s up to us to speak up about the issues affeting our lives. I was pleased to find that one of our nation’s best musicians and campaigner for social justice (suzi’s story - an 1987 AIDS doco that brought home the true impact of the disease on our families and communities and was nominated for an emmy) Vincent Lovegrove has produced some great new songs about the state of affairs in our nation. They’re worth a listen and his myspace page is really interesting (http://myspace.com/mongrelsofpassion). What a breath of fresh air. It’s about time our musos and artists started standing up for what affects us all. Play it loud and proud I say. Would be great to behearing it on the airwaves or at least blaring out of peole’s iPods or car radios.